Rep. Vern Tincher, a Terre Haute Democrat, announced yesterday that he will not seek reelection, resulting in an open seat that is a top target for Republicans in 2010. The problem for Democrats is that it seems to have caught them by surprise.
Since redistricting in 2001, House District 46 has been highly competitive, especially in midterm elections. Tincher lost in 2002 to Republican Brooks LaPlante, only to regain the seat in 2004 after a campaign finance issue dogged LaPlante. Republicans helped Tincher keep it in 2006 and he won narrowly in 2008 thanks to high turnout among college students in Vigo and Monroe Counties who came out for Barack Obama.
Republicans have a candidate in Bob Heaton, a well known Terre Haute native. Heaton lost to Tincher by 412 votes in 2008, and is already up and running again in 2010.
Because Tincher’s retirement was unexpected, Democrats appear to have been caught flat-footed. With only ten days between now and the candidate filing deadline, they’ll have to work fast to find a candidate. Republicans have spent the past year recruiting top candidates in the state’s most competitive districts throughout the state. The focus for the GOP was finding the right person for the job, not the person whose turn it was to run for state representative. That approach has produced a diverse field of well qualified GOP candidates in 30 of the state’s top House districts that are Democrat controlled.
Democrats in District 46 don’t have the luxury of finding the right person, they just need a warm body. Because of the time frame, Democrats must choose among the willing instead of finding the right person for the job. The worst case scenario for Democrats is a crowded primary field, which almost always follows an open seat like this, which wastes money while it divides the local party. Since Tincher has held this seat for the majority of the past 28 years, there is probably no shortage of Democrats in the district who think they’re next in line.
We’re in wait-and-see mode right now until a candidate (or ten) emerges. With Democrats grasping to a two seat majority in the Indiana House, Tincher’s retirement is great news for Republicans fighting hard to win the majority in 2010.
